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2000s commodities boom : ウィキペディア英語版
2000s commodities boom

The 2000s commodities boom or the ''commodities super cycle'' was the rise, and fall, of many physical commodity prices (such as those of food stuffs, oil, metals, chemicals, fuels and the like) which occurred during the first two decades of the 2000s (2000–2014), following the Great Commodities Depression of the 1980s and 1990s. The boom was largely due to the rising demand from emerging markets such as the BRIC countries, particularly China during the period from 1992 to 2013,〔 as well as the result of concerns over long-term supply availability. There was a sharp down-turn in prices during 2008 and early 2009 as a result of the credit crunch and sovereign debt crisis, but prices began to rise as demand recovered from late 2009 to mid-2010. Oil began to slip downwards after mid-2010, but peaked at $101.80 on 30 and 31 January 2011, as the Egyptian political crisis and rioting broke out, leading to concerns over both the safe use of the Suez Canal and over all security in Arabia itself. On 3 March, Libya's National Oil Corp said that output had halved due to the departure of foreign workers. As this happened, Brent Crude surged to a new high of above $116.00 a barrel as supply disruptions and potential for more unrest in the Middle East and North Africa continued to worry investors.〔(Libya: US warships enter Suez Canal on way to Libyan waters ). Telegraph (2 March 2011). Retrieved 28 March 2011.〕 Thus the price of oil kept rising into the 2010s. The commodities super-cycle peaked in 2011,〔"Mark Pervan, global head of commodity strategy at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, said commodity prices peaked in the current cycle in early 2011." "International prices of five energy and metal commodities peaked between February and May of 2011. Since their respective peaks, the Brent crude oil benchmark has fallen 15 per cent, coal 42 per cent, copper 33 per cent, aluminium 37 per cent and iron ore 36 per cent."〕 "driven by a combination of strong demand from emerging nations and low supply growth."〔Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity research at Commerzbank in Germany claimed the commodities super-cycle which began c. 2002, is not coming to an end but just 'taking a break.'〕 Prior to 2002, only 5 to 10 per cent of trading in the commodities market was attributable to investors. Since 2002 "30 per cent of trading is attributable to investors in the commodities market" which "has caused higher price volatility."〔This article covers physical product (food, metals, energy) markets but not the ways that services, including those of governments, nor investment, nor debt, can be seen as a commodity. Articles on reinsurance markets, stock markets, bond markets, and currency markets cover those concerns separately and in more depth.〕
The 2000s commodities boom is comparable to the commodity supercycles which accompanied post–World War II economic expansion and the Second Industrial Revolution in the second half of the 19th century and early 20th century.〔
==Background of depressed prices==
The prices of raw materials were depressed and declining from, roughly, 1982 until 1998. From the mid-1980s to September 2003, the inflation-adjusted price of a barrel of crude oil on NYMEX was generally under $25/barrel. Since 1968 the price of gold has ranged widely, from a high of $850/oz ($27,300/kg) on 21 January 1980, to a low of $252.90/oz ($8,131/kg) on 21 June 1999 (London Gold Fixing).〔(Kitco.com ), Gold – London PM Fix 1975 – present (GIF). Retrieved 22 July 2006.〕
The analysis of this period is based on the work of Robert Solow and is rooted in macroeconomic theories of trade including the Mundell–Fleming model. One opinion stated that
"The volatility and interest rates found its way into commodity inputs and all sectors of the world economy."〔Commodity Trading Manual, By Patrick J. Catania, Chicago Board of Trade, Peter Alonzi, Chicago Board of Trade Market & Product〕

Hence, in the case of an economic crisis commodities prices follow the trends in exchange rate (coupled) and its prices decrease in case there are downward trends of diminishing money supply.〔
Foreign exchange impacts commodities prices and so does money supply: the advent of a crisis will pull commodities prices down.〔

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